READING THE TRENDS…BUYER’S MARKET?

I’ve been sending out market trends to my email list as well as posting articles on my Facebook group page and mentioning the numbers in previous blogs. The problem with sending these numbers is that without a historical reference of the real estate market, the numbers mean nothing. You have to know where you came from to be able to predict where you are going. As a Realtor I can see the changes in the market on a daily basis. For example, when there are 30 showings on a home within the first two weeks of being on the market. This is the case of 1022 Pinehurst in Oviedo. There have been tons of showings with great feedback. Although there are no offers yet, we know it’s just a matter of time. There are other examples such as when buyers I am working with decide to make a near full price offer to ensure they get the house they want. It was just a few months ago when every offer I wrote was a shot in the dark, hoping the sellers were exhausted and ready to give it away. The problem is when I explain the numbers to clients they develop a new optimism for what is going on in the market.

This graph wouldn’t upload but can be seen at https://www.cbflorida.com/public/trendgraphix/seminole.pdf and the numbers for Seminole County for the month of July are below:

Homes Closed in
July: 473

Homes Placed under Contract in
July: 756

Supply of Homes – Months of
inventory: 7.4

Assuming no additional listings added to inventory

What you can see is that there were 473 homes closed in July in Seminole County. If you divide this number into the number of homes on the market (3512) you will come up with your supply of homes on the market. There is 7.4 months of inventory assuming no changes in the market. Just to put this into perspective, know that in parts of Central Florida there have been upwards of 36+ months of inventory at times in the last few years, and in 2005 and in other boom periods of history, the market would balance in the 5 – 6 month range of inventory. I am not suggesting we are nearing a boom period by any means. However, I feel we are nearing a period of stabilization only to be questioned by the future of the commercial real estate market, which is another topic for another day. Nonetheless, in a later blog I will discuss the 6 month to 1 year outlook. A couple questions to think about are:

How much is the tax credit keeping us afloat?

Is it an artificial stabilization or a long term period of growth?

How much of a role does public perception play in the outlook?